When risk models don't work, try intuition

04/16/2009 | Knowledge@Wharton

The unpredictable nature of this recession has thrown forecasting models off so far that even big companies like Unilever and Union Pacific are refusing to make any guesses about the coming months. Instead of giving up, they should be relying on broader measures of risk, experts say. Begin by "listening and challenging the operational management, common sense analysis, sound judgment and good governance at the top," suggests a vice president at Danone.

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