If history is any indication, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which has dropped 20% since October, will likely continue to fall. Since 1946, 11 bear markets continued to decline a further 12% on average, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group and Bloomberg. "Until investors see what write-offs are going to be and second-quarter earnings, they're not interested in buying at any price," said Frederic Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. "Our advice to our clients is that it's been far too early to buy. We want to see contributions by the banks to their loan-loss reserves stabilize before jumping in."
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