Late-in-the-game poll averages tend to predict elections

10/30/2012 | Washington Post, The

It's a rough time to be a pollster, but data show that final-week polling averages actually do a remarkably good job of predicting election results, experts say. Still, notes Dylan Matthews, in a tight race even a percentage point or two of variance might be enough to tip control of the White House one way or the other.

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