How market assumptions of 2014 RFS might be affecting RINs

10/31/2013 | Farmdoc Daily (University of Illinois)

The value of D6 ethanol Renewable Identification Numbers appears to reflect assumptions that there is an 80% chance that the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed cuts to the Renewable Fuel Standard will be carried out and an 80% chance that the biodiesel blenders tax credit will be extended, according to an analysis by University of Illinois economist Scott Irwin. However, this may be "somewhat over-confident about the chances for the different outcomes and suggestive of the possibility that the decline in D6 RINs prices since last summer may be in store for a bit of a correction," Irwin concludes.

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Farmdoc Daily (University of Illinois)

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