CFOs should curb enthusiasm for stock market prediction

11/27/2013 | Strategy+Business online (free registration)

(Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

CFOs have a tendency to overestimate their ability to predict how the stock market will perform in a year, according to a study that analyzed 13,300 quarterly surveys of financial executives from June 2001 to March 2011. CFOs were correct 36% of the time when predicting the market's value 12 months out. The survey found that overconfident CFOs would load up on corporate debt and invest more.

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