Report: No reliable predictors of terrorist attacks
Major terrorist events like the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks cannot be accurately predicted using any current models or methods, a Pentagon-funded study from the Mitre Corp. finds. According to the report, neither natural sciences, social sciences nor engineering can provide accurate predictions of such events, and current approaches are hampered by "false alarm rates and signal detection in the face of massive clutter." Researchers did suggest that adding motive to the current conceptual framework of intent, capability and opportunity could help to better anticipate attacks.
Homeland Security Today
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This story published in AIA dailyLead® on 11/05/2009
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