Financial author and investment manager Martin T. Sosnoff describes the building consensus for 2009 -- bearish in the first half with a recovery in the second half -- as "wish fulfillment" and too simplistic. He writes that, in its fairly intelligent approach to recovery, the U.S. has moved from a capitalist setting to a mixed economy like China. He notes the financial sector is getting all the capital it needs to "overcome the past cycle's stupidities."

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