4/5/2010

Researchers at HP Labs developed a model that uses Twitter to predict sales of tickets in a film's first and second weekends, and it has performed better than the standard industry box-office forecaster, the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Tweet analysis of "Avatar," "Twilight: New Moon" and 22 other movies proved to be 97.3% accurate in predicting box-office results, compared with 96.5% accuracy using the Hollywood Stock Exchange. "I imagine it would do better for more upmarket films, since its users tend to be highly educated, and for films with older audiences, since Twitter will skew a bit older relative to what are often very young opening weekend demos," said Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com.

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