Unemployment is likely to continue rising whether or not the U.S. economy goes into recession, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in an e-mail to clients. Two possible scenarios in the next six to nine months would be "a fairly bad one in which the economy grows at a 1½ percent to 2 percent rate through the middle of next year and the unemployment rate rises moderately to 10 percent, and a very bad one in which the economy returns to an outright recession," wrote Jan Hatzius, the company's chief U.S. economist.

Related Summaries