It's human nature to form false impressions of people based on limited data, and then to trust those impressions despite contradictory data, writes Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics. During his time with the Israeli army, Kahneman writes, he was asked to help evaluate soldiers' performance during a training exercise to identify potential officers. "[D]espite our certainty about the potential of individual candidates, our forecasts were largely useless," he writes.

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