India's inflow of foreign direct investment is likely to reach US$36 billion this fiscal year, up a bit from previous years, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council predicts. Meanwhile, exports are projected to grow 10% to US$329.7 billion.
Analysts frustrated with questionable economic data emerging from China might fare better by referring to year-on-year changes in electricity consumption. China's factories are enormous energy consumers, and the latest indication is that their usage has been trending sharply downward for a few months.
India is now predicting the country's slowest growth in a decade for the fiscal year ending next month. The 5% growth forecast dims hopes for India as a source of strength in a global economic turnaround and was termed disappointing by the government's chief economic adviser, C. Rangarajan, who held out hope the final figure might be revised upward. At India's central bank, Governor D. Subbarao said the lower projection would be taken into account as the bank sets policy in March.
India and China are among the emerging economies at great risk due to a worsening global economic situation, the Asian Development Bank says in a report. Meanwhile, India reported a narrower ratio of deficit to GDP for the April-December period, and the government declared its determination to make cuts and keep the full-year deficit to a minimum. Separately, India's GDP growth estimate for fiscal 2012 was lowered to 6.2%.