McConnell (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Republicans are narrow favorites to reclaim the Senate in 2014, with voters likely to leave the party with either 50 or 51 lawmakers in the upper chamber, according to an analysis by Nate Silver. Much will depend on whether the GOP base hands nominations to mainstream, electable candidates, Silver argues. "A strong set of Republican nominees could give the party as many as a dozen credible opportunities to pick up the seats they need," he writes.

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