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News for broadcast and electronic media leaders | December 11, 2008

Editor's Viewpoint
  • Looking ahead to 2009
     
    Adam Mazmanian, lead editor
    What's coming up next for the broadcasting industry? Part II of this NAB SmartBrief special year-end report, below, highlights our predictions and yours for what's in store for 2009. Part I, published Tuesday, looked back at the most important trends and stories of 2008.

    It's going to be an eventful 2009 for TV broadcasters. The incoming Obama administration will be challenged right off the bat with the Feb. 17 switch to all-digital TV broadcasting.

    Radio is facing a year of challenges in recovering from diminished ad sales in 2008 and in luring listeners to expanded HD Radio offerings.

    Broadcasters will face not just a new administration, but also new leadership at the FCC and Senate and House Commerce committees.

    Read on to see what NAB SmartBrief readers are predicting for 2009 and our Q-and-A with NAB President and CEO David K. Rehr.


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  Your Predictions 
Reader Poll: The transition to all-digital TV broadcasting is set for Feb. 17, 2009. How do you think it will go?
Isolated problems, but successful overall 52.00%
Widespread technical glitches 34.50%
Total calamity 10.25%
Without a hitch 3.25%
Reader Poll: Which media initiative will get top priority in the Obama administration?
Network neutrality 27.92%
Re-institution of the Fairness Doctrine 23.35%
None of the above 22.34%
Rural broadband 19.80%
Intellectual property protection 6.60%
Reader poll: Will Sirus-XM Satellite Radio be in business by this time next year?
No 49.13%
Yes 46.51%
No opinion 4.37%
Reader poll: PPM commercialization rollouts are scheduled for 2009 and 2010. Is the system working?
Preliminary results indicate PPM provides a good measure of radio audiences 59.62%
No opinion 15.38%
Hard to say, because sample sizes are too small in key demographics 13.46%
No, it undercounts young people and minorities 11.54%
  The Big Picture 
  • Q-and-A: NAB President & CEO David K. Rehr
     
    David K. Rehr, NAB President and CEO
    SmartBrief: Some industry leaders are predicting that 2009 will bring a shakeout in radio as the economy continues to experience a downturn. What trends and technologies do you think will drive the radio industry next year?

    Rehr: Radio broadcasters will certainly face some new challenges in 2009, given the economic outlook impacting every business in America. What we must not lose sight of, however, is the unique value delivered by radio everyday in towns and cities across America. In 2008, we saw 235 million Americans tune in to free, local radio every week. What people may not know is that this figure is actually three million more than in 2007. Moving into 2009, we must continue to seize upon our digital opportunities, whether it is through HD Radio, FM-capable cell phones, Internet radio, or some yet-invented technology. HD Radio gained a lot of momentum in 2008 lining up a deal with Volvo and others, while the iPhone brought new opportunities for tech-savvy radio stations. We need to build upon this momentum to have a successful 2009.

    SmartBrief: Is the country prepared for the switch to all-digital TV broadcasting in February 2009? How would you evaluate the job done by government and the private sector in alerting viewers to the change?

    Rehr: As every TV broadcaster in America knows, informing Americans about the transition to digital TV is a Herculean lift, and we'll continue to explore every means necessary to get the message out in the final stretch of this unprecedented informational campaign. The DTV transition has united broadcast affiliates, networks, cable and satellite operators, TV set manufacturers and consumer groups, as well as federal, state and local governments – all working toward one common goal: To ensure no American loses their broadcast signal due to a lack of information. The broadcast industry alone has mounted a billion-dollar marketing campaign around this effort in an attempt to leave no stone unturned.

    SmartBrief: There has been much speculation about the priorities of the incoming Obama administration when it comes to media and marketing. What do think an Obama administration will mean for broadcasters?

    Rehr: We're confident that an Obama administration will recognize the value of free and local broadcasting during these challenging economic times, and will appreciate the lifeline role that radio and TV stations play in providing communities with timely local news, information and public service programming. Our top priority is a successful DTV transition, and we will be working tirelessly with President Obama and his team to ensure that the February 17 end of analog television goes smoothly.

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