Editor's Viewpoint

Looking forward to 2009
Part I of this NAW SmartBrief special year-end report looked back at the most important trends and stories of 2008. Part II, below, highlights several predictions -- including from Institute for Trend Research Principal Alan Beaulieu and NAW SmartBrief readers -- for what's expected in 2009.

Following the 2008 election of President-elect Barack Obama, as well as with the Democratic-led Congress, wholesaler-distributors and small-business owners can expect to see changes on the legislative front in 2009. But wholesaler-distributors can count on NAW to make sure the industry is ably represented as Congress tackles critical issues, including health care reform, labor, employer mandates and taxes.

As for events in 2009, NAW has several Billion Dollar Company Roundtables, a Large Company Networking Conference and a Large Company Roundtable planned in Chicago, as well as the Wholesale Distribution Manager's Course at The Ohio State University. NAW also is holding the 2009 NAW Executive Summit Jan. 27 to 29, 2009, in Washington, D.C. -- register here for "Distributor Success Stories: Profiting Despite the Difficult Economy." Visit the NAW Web site for all the details on these events and more.

Your Predictions

Do you expect the economy to have a negative impact on your business in 2009?

• Yes. It is pretty much inescapable right now. -- 59%
  
• Maybe, but if we take precautions, I think we will be fine. -- 30%
  
• No, we have been working to cut costs and improve productivity all year. -- 11%
  

Do you expect gas prices to continue to have an effect on your business in 2009?

• Yes, we do not foresee gas prices decreasing next year. -- 45%
• No, we are hopeful that gas prices will stabilize in the next year. -- 47%
• Gas prices have not really affected business thus far. -- 8%
  

Does your business have any mergers or acquisitions planned in 2009?

• Yes, we already have at least one planned. -- 18%
• We don't have any plans yet, but there is still time. -- 22%
• No, we don't foresee any 2009 mergers or acquisitions. -- 60%
  

The Big Picture

An interview with Institute for Trend Research Principal Alan Beaulieu

NAW SmartBrief editor Ashley McMaster corresponded with the Institute for Trend Research's Alan Beaulieu to get his thoughts on what direction the wholesale distribution industry is headed in 2009.

What do you think were the top three trends in the wholesale distribution industry in 2008? How do you expect those to change in 2009?

• We are going to see a lower level of activity in 2009 compared to 2008.
• There will be a greater need to add value to distribution; the need to justify our existence will be greater than ever before.
• We will need to realize that the credit crunch means a greater reliance on self-generated cash.

What is your opinion right now on the global economy? And what do you think wholesaler-distributors can expect in 2009?
The global economy is softening even as we speak, and we can expect it to get worse in 2009.

How will the economy affect mergers and acquisitions in the wholesale distribution industry in 2009?
In late 2009 and early 2010, we will see increased activity, as more firms likely will be seeking buyers, and cash-rich firms will be on the hunt.

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