What’s next for US politics after Democrats’ midterm gains?
With some races still too close to call, longtime political strategists James Carville and Karl Rove were already sorting through the midterm results the morning after Election Day at FIA’s Futures & Options Expo.
Projections showed Democrats winning control of the House and Senate for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. In a conversation moderated by Alicia Crighton, co-head of global futures at Goldman Sachs and chair of the FIA board, Carville and Rove agreed that voters sent a message to the president, but there was some disagreement on what that might mean for the next two years and the 2028 Presidential Election.
Carville said both parties effectively agreed to treat the election as if Trump were on the ballot, a strategy that backfired for Republicans and likely fueled Democratic victories. Rove said Trump’s repeated claims that the US economy is great did not sit well with voters.
“The Democratic Party won this because they made it about Trump,” Rove said, pointing to polls showing voters are unhappy with the economy and concerned about corruption. “It’s anger, and you can see it in the exit polls, and you can sure as hell see it in the way people voted.”
Despite expectations that Democrats would gain seats, both men were a bit surprised by the extent of Democrats’ congressional gains.
A warning for Democrats
Rove cautioned that the win is not necessarily an endorsement of Democrats, citing polling that shows voters do not view the party favorably. Democrats have talked about affordability but have not laid out solutions, Rove said, something that could hurt them moving forward. Both parties are also divided and polarized, which could create issues for Democrats trying to govern while Trump still holds veto power.
The pair also diverged on how Democrats should govern. Carville argued Democrats should move forward with a short list of popular measures, such as a higher minimum wage and a ban on members of Congress trading stocks. Rove pointed to positive bipartisanship, such as that which occurred following Democrats’ midterm losses in 1994, when Bill Clinton was president.
Rove said bipartisanship may instead come from individual lawmakers like past work on infrastructure and semiconductors. He highlighted a group of Democratic and Republican military veterans who have agreed to meet regularly and pair up to complete one project each year.
What it means for Republicans and Trump
Carville and Rove said Trump badly misread the electorate. Deciding to campaign heavily in the final months, instead of addressing voters’ everyday concerns, made the race a referendum on him. Rove said the Republican losses “are so deep and so problematic” that the party may move back toward its Conservative base.
Carville said Trump has been “massively rejected” and the rest of his term will feel very different than the previous two years. The 2028 presidential election starts now, and Republicans will have to decide whether to go in a new direction or stay within the Trump sphere.