Leaders have long navigated through the intersection of tension. Today, they face an environment of external tensions: tariff threats, tax changes and tense geopolitical relationships. These tensions affect our team’s emotional capacity to execute as the news keeps coming. Daily cycles are now hourly with orders, and announcements are constantly flooding the zone of information.
As leaders, how do we incorporate the right information that will impact our growth strategy while filtering out that which will distract our team?
1. Acknowledge the shift to making great decisions, not great predictions
One typical response to facing uncertainty is to ignore it and assume we can predict what will come next, given our planning tools. This is a delusion. Another is to falter and freeze as we anxiously wait for clarity to emerge (it rarely does) and hold off on any decision in the meantime, becoming paralyzed by inaction.
To move from delusion or paralysis, first overcome the temptation to make predictions. Then, acknowledge the reality of uncertainty and build a strategy around it – not simply adjust for it. Next, overcome the fear of making decisions without having all the information. What sets high-performing teams apart is they are good at making great decisions, even though they cannot make great predictions.
Shift from complaining, prediction mapping or kicking the can down the road to a focus on building decision-making capability. Implement new decision-making frameworks, such as codifying decision-making rights or clarifying what makes a good decision within the team.
2. Beliefs form choices; articulate your top ones
What sets high-performing teams apart from others is they make decisions based on beliefs, not waiting for facts. We are not ignoring data, as it is critical for helping us form and test our beliefs. But, if we always wait for facts, there is no longer an insight: everyone has it.
Start by articulating your midterm beliefs. A belief implies taking a stance, and a reasonable belief can be watched or tested over time. Beliefs are critical, as we need to avoid the trap of jumping from trend to implication. For example, we see possible tariffs, therefore we most stockpile inventory. This may be the appropriate choice, but knee-jerk reactions are not a strategy. To build your foundation, complete this sentence:
We are seeing X [this trend], and we believe Y for the midterm [your team’s belief], which means Z for us [the possible strategic implication].
Create a small “tiger team” that will focus on testing your most critical strategic beliefs. As the news cycle continues, your team can view incoming information with this belief filter – is this providing more clarity on a belief, challenging it or irrelevant noise?
3. Clarity on value creation: What are you trying to achieve?
One factor remains constant amidst the noise of the current environment: the definition of strategy. A powerful grounding is while the world is changing, what we are trying to do has not: strategy remains an articulation of value creation. Value creation is driving the biggest gap between two levers: your customers’ willingness to pay for your product, services, and solutions and your total cost of delivering the market this value.
Re-anchor the team on value creation. When news comes in, question if this provides new information into how we create value. If so, let’s talk about it, as it may influence our strategic objectives and activities. If not, our next question is if it will hinder or prevent us from creating value. If so, we ask how we can address or shape it. If not, it’s noise, and we ignore it and keep our focus on value creation.
4. Direction or destination: Set a clear finish line
It is tempting to pull back from goals when facing uncertainty, but this is a trap. Strategies need a finish line – the team needs to know what we are aiming towards. In selecting a finish line, though, we have a choice between a direction or a destination. Destinations are needed when we have clarity of the environment, a major shareholder event (such as an exit) or the need to execute a publicly committed promise. Directions are for when we are facing extreme uncertainty, a shifting business model or there is disruptive innovation in our space.
The need for directions is not new. In 1850, journalist Horace Greeley urged Americans to “Go West.” He didn’t specify a destination, like San Francisco, and he didn’t have to. The West was the land of opportunity, and he believed there were fortunes to be made – even though it wasn’t exactly clear how the westward migration would play out. His injunction was not precise, but it was accurate. It was directionally correct.
Finish lines matter as information comes through a filter on helping, hurting or on the ability to get to that finish line. As we learn more, we can become more precise on the eventual destination.
5. Execution is adaptable
Adaptability is key, but agility without strategy is chaos. Clarity of beliefs, value creation and a finish line are needed so team members can make great decisions quickly and aligned with strategy. Bringing adaptability into execution means shifting the first review meeting question from “Are we on track to plan,” to “Has the situation changed?” It involves being agnostic to the activities your teams perform in execution, as long as they stay within articulated boundaries in executing toward the finish line. And it requires recognition and rewarding team members who make fast decisions on the ground.
The best type of decisions to make right now are no-regret moves. A no-regret move is defined as even if we got our beliefs wrong, we would not regret making this decision or action. Find yours, articulate them, make them and celebrate team members who find more.
Noise will continue to overwhelm strategic nuance in the external world, but you can lead a team that thrives through this if you have the following:
- Acknowledgement of decision-making over predictions
- Belief setting and testing
- Clarify value creation
- Directions over destinations
- Execution with adaptability
Opinions expressed by SmartBrief contributors are their own.
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